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With us today is Mike Zlotnik. Mike is known in real estate circles as “Big Mike” due to his stature, but more importantly, he is known for his personal integrity and for having a keen understanding of the financial aspects of successful real estate investing.
Mike has a depth of expert knowledge in the Pandemic created investment opportunities in real estate; what’s “hot” and what’s “cold” and where things are trending now.
Mike knows that the future can be unpredictable, so he recommends taking extra precautions. He isn’t just looking at potential gains – Mike is proactively stress testing his investments to make sure they’ll stand strong even in a recession! It goes to show you how being prepared makes all the difference when it comes down to investing.
Mike is a firm believer that real estate investments are far more reliable than the ebbs and flows of equity markets. He prefers to put his money into private properties, where he can be sure of a steady return.
This episode has Mike Zlotnik spilling the beans on how to make real estate investing a financial success – don’t miss out!
In This Episode
- Mike’s background, journey and story.
- The most important thing investors should be thinking about in 2023.
- What real estate options do you have with these rates?
- The future of real estate and where it’s heading. Mike’s piece of advice to accelerate his wealth trajectory.
Welcome to today’s show on Wealth Strategy Secrets. We’ve got another great episode for you. Today, we’re joined by Mike Zlotnik, who is known in real estate circles as “Big Mike” due to his stature. More importantly, he’s recognized for his integrity and keen understanding of the financial aspects of successful real estate investing. Mike has deep expertise in economics and investment opportunities in real estate, covering what’s hot, what’s cold, and where the market is trending.
Mike, welcome to the show!
Thank you so much for having me, Dave. I’m honored and humbled to be here. I appreciate the opportunity.
I know our audience is going to enjoy this conversation. There’s so much uncertainty in the market right now as we record this in Q1 of 2023. Are we moving into a recessionary period? Interest rates are on the rise, although the Fed only hiked by a quarter point just this week, which was interesting. There are a lot of dynamics in the marketplace, and many investors are wondering what makes sense on the investment horizon. Before we dive into the economics, could you share a bit about your background, journey, and story?
I live in Brooklyn, New York, with my lovely family. I like to joke that I’m married to my wife and have four “monkeys” — my four kids — ranging in age from 12 to 22. So, they’re not small kids anymore! I came to the United States as a political refugee from the former Soviet Union in 1989. That was quite a while ago! I’m now a U.S. citizen and proud patriot.
I spent my initial career in the technology field, working in IT for almost 15 years and eventually reaching a senior executive level. However, my true passion has always been real estate. I’ve been investing in real estate since 2000, starting as a passive investor for nine years before going full-time in 2009 as a fund manager. We’ve been running the Temple family of funds since then, and it’s been a fun journey. We’ve completed a lot of loans and invested in commercial real estate.
We’ve built extensive expertise across a broad range of commercial assets. While I don’t claim to be a jack of all trades, over the years, we’ve invested in multifamily, self-storage, industrial, office, and retail properties, among other asset classes. I appreciate a broad diversification strategy because you never know what will be a home run and what will be a strikeout.
That makes sense. Do you have a wealth strategy that you’re following today?
Yes, we build wealth through our own experience. We invest in many things that we are passionate about. Like Warren Buffett, I prefer not to diversify into a hundred deals; instead, we focus on a select few where we take larger positions ourselves, and, of course, our investors participate in these investments.
Our wealth strategy isn’t a holistic approach but rather opportunistic. We’ve been building our portfolio of real estate assets as the primary mechanism for wealth building for many years. While I’m not an expert in the stock market, I do love investing in real estate and appreciate its predictability. My strategy revolves around growing wealth through various investments in real estate assets, from loans to equity positions.
I’ve learned that building a portfolio of single-family homes is not for me. I tried that approach, and I realized there’s a lot of work involved. I would much rather own pieces of large commercial assets than manage multiple single-family residences. So, we prefer to own shares in many commercial projects rather than owning one asset outright.
e own 10% of this, 20% of that, 30% of another project—that’s the way we invest. Diversification is a critical element of our strategy because if you take concentrated risks, you expose yourself more to what a specific deal can do. We’ve seen this in both up and down markets. A great-looking deal on paper can strike out and turn into a problem, while a deal that seems like it barely meets its target return can become a massive home run. This whole experience has taught me a valuable lesson: even if you have a strong conviction to write a big check, you still need to diversify.
I follow the wisdom of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, who take outsized bets on things they strongly believe in at the right time in the market. That strategy makes a lot of sense, but they still diversify. They might write a $5 billion check when they have $100 billion in the bank, and that approach remains sound. What do you believe is most important for investors in 2023 as they think about capital allocation? What should people focus on?
That depends on whether we’re talking about fresh money or existing investments, as there are different considerations for each. For fresh capital, some folks emphasize downside protection, which is crucial. Another approach is to look for great distressed or discounted deals. As we enter a recession, being opportunistic and keeping your eyes and ears open for great deals is essential. While great deals may not appear immediately, they should become available later in the year due to the pressure building in the economy, which will lead to distress in some transactions.
Having cash or access to cash is critical when investing fresh capital. With existing investments, however, it’s a different ballgame. You need to assess what you have and how your investors will fare in a recession. Is there risk associated with a project? Evaluating existing investments is important—can you “winterize” your portfolio and understand which deals might take a hit?
This is both a psychological and physical exercise because you need to know what you own. If you don’t assess your portfolio, say you have 30 investments, and 25 are solid while five have potential risks, including catastrophic loss, you can’t effectively plan. It’s vital to know your holdings. On the fresh investment side, opportunities will be plentiful.
What the Fed has done recently is noteworthy, and we’ll delve into that more. The Fed has acted late and moved too fast, increasing rates significantly over a short time in an economy that had become addicted to a low-interest-rate environment. Many real estate and corporate deals now carry too much debt at these low rates. When that debt matures, it creates enormous pressure on operators or owners, who may need additional capital or have to sell distressed assets.
There are likely to be many opportunities ahead, and being prepared to act—without fear—is crucial. That mindset and a ready wallet are the keys to success. For investors with existing portfolios across various asset types, are there any specific KPIs you follow to track your investments and stress test their performance?
Yes, the most basic analysis we conduct in our portfolio management involves comparing operating and financials against projections and planned performance. This is standard practice among most operators. For instance, in a value-add multifamily investment, we evaluate month-to-month projections from an operational perspective—how many units were planned to be renovated versus how many were renovated, on budget, on time, and cost.
On the financial side, we look at the economic numbers: what were the projected Net Operating Income (NOI) versus the actual figures? If things are moving toward the target, that’s good news because you’re executing your plan.
You should also consider the stress points a given investment might have, such as long-term maturity or a cap expiration. Investments made a couple of years ago, when interest rates were low, typically had 2- to 3-year bridge loans. Unless you bought a stabilized asset and obtained a long-term bank loan through Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or another source, chances are, if you invested as a Limited Partner (LP) in a value-added project, the project has some form of bridge debt, and it’s not.
Some folks have taken longer-term loans, and that would have been a great decision. However, way too many people have opted for bridge debt, which may now be maturing. Most of the rate caps I’ve seen were purchased for up to two years. So, a project from two years ago could already have an expiring rate cap, and the rates now are substantially higher than they were back then. For example, the interest rate they are paying now could be 80% higher compared to what they secured one and a half to two years ago. In some cases, the payment could be 100% higher. That’s a significant stress point.
It’s crucial to understand whether the project expects a sudden payment increase due to the expiration of the rate cap. This is a substantial concern, and there are a few options to address it. At that point, the deal might not be meeting the debt service coverage ratio, so here are a few potential solutions:
The interest rate that we’re paying now versus the interest rate we will pay in a few years, will only go higher.
Buy a New Rate Cap: The bank may require you to bring in liquidity to buy a fresh rate cap. This way, your interest rate becomes manageable again.
Raise Capital: You can raise capital to pay down the mortgage, which may not be the most attractive option. This could involve raising funds from existing investors or bringing in new investors.
Sell the Asset: Selling becomes a concern if you are entering a market that is not receptive to sales. For instance, if you have a bridge loan but haven’t fully executed your value-added plan, or if a hurricane or another issue has disrupted your progress, you might have to wait until you can execute the plan properly. If you decide to sell now, it could be viewed as a distressed asset, which would mean a discounted opportunity for buyers. While that might be attractive for someone looking to buy, it presents challenges for a seller.
What we’re doing isn’t strictly a KPI; it’s more of a practical exercise to review stress points. Financial rate increases are a significant and common stress point, but there can be other, less common stress points, such as massive operating issues. This is why it’s important to compare operating pro forma versus actual performance and financials against projections. These comparisons will indicate whether you’re on track. If you are on plan, at least that aspect looks positive.
I hope this helps provide a high-level view of our approach. Another aspect we focus on is maintaining good communication. Since we manage a family of funds of funds, we often invest as Limited Partners (LPs), but we also invest as General Partners (GPs) and co-GPs. We collaborate closely with the operators of these assets to ensure that operations are strong.
Depending on the size of your investment, you may prefer monthly updates or quarterly updates. Given the current environment, we are gravitating toward monthly operational updates to gain clarity on what’s happening. What used to be sufficient as a quarterly update may now require a monthly review.
It’s essential to address any issues that arise, and effective communication is critical. When things are going well, operators and sponsors tend to communicate effectively. However, a drop in communication often signals that something is amiss—this is human nature. I’ve observed this repeatedly, and I mean this with all due respect to operators.
When stress levels rise, people often under-communicate, and then you need to investigate what’s truly happening. You may have to visit the asset to understand the situation. Sometimes, the asset might be fine, but the operators may be dealing with problems at other properties, which can create stress.
And they may not be giving your property enough attention. It’s essential to understand if the operator is stressed. I’ve seen situations where your project is fine, but the operator is under pressure due to loan maturities on another property, and they need liquidity there. While your project might be doing well, you still want to ensure it receives the necessary attention. I hope that helps.
Those are solid insights, Mike. I appreciate that. One thing we should keep in perspective for investors is that many of us who invest in real estate might be living in a bit of a bubble.
We need to consider all the different asset classes out there. The reality is that a significant portion of people’s portfolios are still tied up in government-sponsored qualified plans, stocks, bonds, and mutual funds. For instance, the S&P 500 was down about 20% last year. If you had $100,000 in your 401(k) and it dropped by 20%, that means you’d be down to $80,000. To break even after a 20% loss, you’d need to make a 40% gain the following year. So, it’s crucial to compare and contrast asset classes and evaluate your portfolio on a relative basis.
Regarding equities markets, I want to clarify that I’m not a specialist in that area, but I do have my opinions. Generally, equity markets lack the predictability of real estate and tend to be more volatile. As you rightly pointed out, if you experience a 20% decline in one year, you’d need a 25% increase just to break even. If your investment dropped to $80,000, you would need to gain $20,000 to return to $100,000, which is a 25% increase relative to the lower amount.
In my view, many corporations are struggling under the weight of cheap debt, creating a situation similar to what real estate is facing. There are numerous “zombie companies” out there that only manage to stay afloat by servicing their debt. As interest rates rise, this burden becomes heavier, leading to significant challenges for these corporations—challenges that may even surpass those faced in real estate.
Given these considerations, I would prefer to invest in private real estate rather than navigate the uncertainties of the stock market. I recently created a short educational video comparing Wall Street-traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) to private funds, highlighting numerous differences. For instance, REITs often invest in more stabilized assets and focus on income, while private real estate allows for more flexibility, including growth and value investments.
However, one of the biggest distinctions is that when you invest in Wall Street, you typically lack the opportunity to know, like, and trust the people behind your investments. You are dealing with large corporate entities or REITs, which can distance you from the management team. In contrast, with private real estate, you can build relationships with operators, meet their teams, and develop a more personal understanding of the investments.
As a fund manager, I must know, like, and trust the individuals we invest with. We operate on a model where we invest in other funds, and we need to assess both the people involved and the deals being proposed to ensure they align with our investment strategy.
Moreover, I think being in the alternative investment space aligns us with strong fundamentals. If you look at the current state of commercial real estate, there is still a significant shortage of around 6 million homes across the country. This issue is particularly pronounced in Sunbelt states, where many people are moving.
Despite the economic challenges, the demand for housing remains robust. For example, with high interest rates, first-time homebuyers, like my kids, are finding it difficult to purchase homes, leading them to seek rental options instead.
This trend is evident in states with no income tax, such as Florida, Tennessee, and Texas, where migration is increasing. I believe the fundamentals remain strong, but it’s crucial to protect your downside and ensure you are investing in a solid operational team. What are your thoughts on that perspective?
Let me continue on that train of thought. The idea of a recession in Florida? What recession? The state is experiencing a significant influx of people, which mitigates the impact of a downturn. I completely agree that during a recession—especially in a high-interest-rate environment—demand for rental housing, particularly affordable options, tends to increase.
Affordable multifamily housing has experienced significant growth, yet there is a considerable supply shortage. This represents a fundamental shift in the market. During a recession, people tend to downsize; they can’t afford a larger home, so they opt for smaller living spaces. For instance, they might choose to rent an apartment instead of a house. Even if they prefer a house, they will settle for an apartment if it fits their budget while still prioritizing good locations and access to quality schools.
The current high-interest-rate environment has unexpectedly benefited rent increases, triggering and accelerating rent inflation. Certain asset classes within commercial real estate remain attractive in this landscape due to their strong fundamentals during a recession. For example, affordable multifamily housing and some levels of storage are holding up well. Conversely, other asset classes, such as office spaces and certain retail sectors, present challenges. Retail is particularly interesting post-COVID; while there is a resurgence in some areas, others—like closed-door retail—may continue to decline.
Industrial real estate, however, is thriving and offers excellent opportunities, even in a recession. We have invested in niche strategies that continue to perform well. For example, we partner with a company called DiscountLots.com, which acquires recreational land in rural areas and sells it to investors as receivables at significantly marked-up prices. This niche is somewhat insulated from the impacts of high interest rates, as those rates do not affect their business model.
It’s important to note that not all investment opportunities are tied to market conditions or cycles. Regarding location, southern states experiencing inbound migration and lower living costs will likely continue to perform well. Affordability has become a pressing issue in recent years due to rapid inflation, making it essential to evaluate areas where housing is affordable relative to income levels.
We have made investments in suburban Detroit, which some might not consider an attractive market. However, the housing is affordable, and by developing high-quality products in the area, we can create outstanding investment opportunities. Real estate investments should always be assessed on a local level. You can have a great investment in a struggling market, or conversely, a poor investment in a thriving one.
It’s crucial to differentiate between deal selection and the operator’s capabilities. The right strategy often outweighs the choice of simply investing in popular markets like Florida or Texas. For instance, Austin has been a hot market, but after visiting and speaking with a local developer who believes it will remain insulated from a recession, I’m skeptical. The data suggests that Austin’s housing is so unaffordable that a price correction seems inevitable.
In summary, market forces like supply, demand, and affordability will significantly influence outcomes during recessionary periods, especially if prices have escalated dramatically. I believe there will be a reversion to the mean over time.
Looking ahead, I believe the U.S. economy cannot sustain high interest rates for an extended period. Although the Fed is committed to combating inflation and has indicated they aren’t done raising rates, it has historically been late to respond to economic changes.
For example, the Fed is still increasing the federal funds rate while the 10-year Treasury has already peaked and started to decline. I believe the 10-year Treasury, which peaked at around 4.25%, has reached its high and will not return to those levels. My prediction is that the Fed may implement one more rate increase before pausing, as they have already inflicted significant pain on the market.
As interest rates remain high, pressure will mount on the economy. Maturing loans, including bridge loans and corporate debt, will need to be renewed at higher rates, which will strain value-added projects. This pressure will become more pronounced in about six months.
I foresee the Fed keeping rates steady through the end of this year, and if economic pain persists, they may begin to lower rates. However, the U.S. economy cannot maintain current interest rates due to the ballooning level of debt relative to the size of the economy. While I’m not suggesting we’re headed for a scenario like Japan’s, where debt-to-GDP ratios are unmanageable, we must be mindful of our trajectory.
Affordable multifamily housing has seen substantial growth, yet there is still not enough supply, marking a fundamental shift in the market. During a recession, people tend to downsize; when you can’t afford a bigger place, you rent a smaller one. You might rent an apartment instead of a house, prioritizing a good location and schools, but settling for an apartment if a house is out of reach. Interestingly, this high-interest-rate environment has led to rent inflation, actually accelerating rent increases.
Certain asset classes within commercial real estate continue to look attractive in this climate, particularly those with strong fundamentals during a recession, such as affordable multifamily housing and some levels of self-storage. Conversely, other asset classes, like offices and certain types of retail, face challenges. Retail has shown some signs of recovery post-COVID, with consumers eager to return, but closed-door retail may continue to decline over time. Thus, caution is warranted in these asset classes. Industrial real estate, on the other hand, is thriving, with numerous opportunities even in a recession.
For instance, we’ve been investing with a company called discountlots.com, which purchases recreational land in rural areas and sells it to investors as receivables, often for five to six times the purchase price. This is an example of a niche strategy that remains insulated from high interest rates because those rates don’t impact it. It’s essential to recognize that in the investment world, there are opportunities that do not depend heavily on market conditions or cycles.
Returning to the topic of location, southern states experiencing inbound migration are likely to perform well, but affordability remains a critical issue. Over the past couple of years, rapid inflation has exacerbated this challenge. Therefore, it’s crucial to assess where income levels align with affordable housing options.
We’ve completed deals in suburban Detroit, which some might consider an unappealing market. However, the housing is affordable, and if you’re providing a high-quality product in a market that demands it, such an investment can be exceptionally lucrative. Ultimately, real estate is local; you can have a great investment in a poor market or a bad investment in a great market.
It’s vital to separate deal selection from location. The right operator and strategy can outweigh the desirability of the market itself. For example, while Austin has been a hot market, I recently met with a local developer who believes Austin will remain insulated from recession. While I respect that view, I’m concerned that the market is so unaffordable that a price correction may be imminent. The forces of supply, demand, and affordability will play significant roles in the recessionary environment, especially after such substantial price increases in recent years. Ultimately, a reversion to the mean is inevitable.
Looking ahead to the future of real estate beyond 2023, I firmly believe the U.S. economy cannot sustain high interest rates for too long. Although the Federal Reserve has committed to fighting inflation and has indicated it may continue raising interest rates, history shows they often lag behind the curve. For instance, they are still increasing the fed funds rate while the 10-year Treasury has already indicated it has peaked.
While I could be mistaken, I don’t believe the 10-year Treasury will return to its previous peak of around 4.25%. I anticipate one more rate hike, possibly a quarter-point increase, after which they may pause due to the economic strain already imposed. Maintaining these restrictive policies will continue to pressure the economy, particularly as maturing loans need to be renewed at higher rates, which will be challenging for many value-added projects.
Looking ahead, I foresee the Fed holding rates steady through the end of this year, but if economic pain persists, they might consider lowering rates in the future. However, the U.S. economy cannot afford interest rates at their current levels due to the soaring debt relative to the economy’s size. This issue is not yet at the level of Japan’s economic situation, but the overall debt remains significant.
It’s been unsustainable for a long time. Nonetheless, we have substantial public and private debt about the size of the economy that cannot support high interest rates. As long as there are no drastic fiscal policy changes, such as the massive money printing we witnessed during COVID, which led to significant inflation, we should be prepared for an economic downturn in the second half of the year and likely into 2024. Most recessions last between 12 to 18 months, so if we project that timeframe onto a potential recession starting in the latter half of this year, we may face economic challenges well into 2024.
The specifics of the recession—its severity and the subsequent opportunities—are still uncertain, but investors should be ready. Fresh capital could begin to find opportunities if attractive deals emerge. If you believe rates will eventually decrease, then the time to buy is now or in the upcoming months. The principle of investing suggests that you typically buy real estate when rates are high and refinance or sell when rates are low. Lower interest rates lead to lower cap rates, which is advantageous for sales or refinancing.
Therefore, if attractive deals present themselves in the second half of the year, and you can confidently explain why a deal is great, that’s a key factor. Whenever anyone presents a deal to me, my first question is always, “Why is this a great deal?” If they can’t articulate a strong rationale, it’s probably not worth pursuing. If I see better deals on the horizon, I’m not inclined to invest now. However, if there’s a solid justification for why a deal is favorable today—perhaps due to the seller’s financial struggles or unfinished renovations—then investing now, even at higher interest rates, could pay off when rates eventually decline.
I think you nailed it there, Mike. The focus should be on acquiring undervalued assets, as the initial profit is made at the buying stage. If you find a great deal amid today’s interest rates, it can indeed be a good investment. We’re starting to witness this trend in the market, with creative strategies emerging and solid underlying fundamentals driving them. Investors poised to capitalize on these opportunities, while also maintaining a long-term perspective, will have an advantage.
Unfortunately, the equity markets often lead us to be reactive, fixating on daily fluctuations. In contrast, real estate and similar asset classes allow for a long-term mindset, akin to how the wealthy think—making decisions based on fundamentals. If you could offer investors just one piece of advice on accelerating their wealth trajectory, what would it be?
Investors should really keep that long term view on the equities markets and get us all positioned to be reactive for aid in looking at things online on a daily basis.
Before I respond, let me add one more thought. In line with your earlier comment, I completely agree that being a long-term investor is crucial. Thank you for emphasizing that. Reflecting on the past, we may be ahead of a significant recession, but analyzing what the greatest investors have done during crises, like Warren Buffett during the 2008 recession, provides valuable insight. Buffett famously stated that one should be greedy when others are fearful, a principle worth remembering during challenging times.
Just a quick comment: Warren Buffett wrote a $5 billion check to Goldman Sachs during the market panic in September 2008. There are seven lessons I could discuss, and some of them are great advice you can learn from Buffett.
Invest with downside protection. Buffett invested in preferred equity instead of common equity, which is safer. We do this today by structuring deals where investors can choose preferred equity, which offers greater downside protection.
When you invest, aim to get some cash flow today while also having the upside potential tomorrow. Buffett secured a 10% annual dividend yield, which is impressive, especially during a downturn.
He also included a requirement that if Goldman Sachs were to buy back that preferred equity, they would have to pay him a $500 million exit fee. Essentially, he built a minimum prepayment penalty into the deal. While not everyone can negotiate that, he set a great example.
Additionally, he received $5 billion worth of warrants to purchase Goldman Sachs stock at a strike price below the market rate. The terms of this deal were remarkably favorable.
Another lesson is that if you’re as well-known as Warren Buffett, you have negotiation leverage. A strong reputation attracts opportunities, giving you pricing power because people come to you for money.
At the end of the day, you should seek investments that provide both good downside protection and the potential for significant upside. If you find a great deal, don’t hesitate to write a check. Buffett made a substantial investment but was confident in the healthy risk-to-reward ratio.
The reason I’m sharing this is that you asked about key lessons. Essentially, act like Warren Buffett. While not everyone can land deals like his, thinking in this manner can be beneficial. When negotiating or evaluating opportunities, consider if you can secure any of these favorable elements. We recently released a newsletter with an article outlining seven lessons learned from 2008. If folks want to get a copy, they can find it on our website.
Now, regarding private real estate investing versus public markets, as you mentioned, public REITs and stocks are focused on quarterly performance. If they don’t report good numbers in a given quarter, they often face severe sell-offs as investors panic. In contrast, real estate requires a long-term perspective. It’s essential to look beyond short-term performance and assess whether it’s a fundamentally sound investment. If it is, don’t hesitate to invest.
Great! Mike, thanks so much for joining the show today and sharing such valuable insights. I know our listeners will appreciate it. If people want to connect with you or learn more about your work, what’s the best way to reach you?
It might sound a little cheesy, but I go by “Big Mike,” and the name has stuck. I’m a big guy—6’4” and heavyset—so it makes sense. I’m a fund manager, and you can find me at bigmikefund.com. It’s easy to remember! And just to clarify if you forget the “d” at the end and hear bigmikefund.com, I promise it’s not a kink site!
Perfect! Thanks again, Mike. I appreciate your time. This has been very insightful, and I look forward to speaking again.
Thank you.